On March 9, 2023, the United States Meteorological Agency (NOAA) has just announced the end of the three-year "La Niña" phenomenon, responsible for the cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, "neutral" temperatures are forecast during the beginning of spring and early summer, and the beginning of "El Niño" is expected from the summer of 2023. This change in temperatures is expected to generate extreme drought in the following years along with a decrease in food production. (1) .
What is El Niño?
The natural phenomenon of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is characterized by being responsible for the increase in global temperatures and extreme weather events that have a greater impact on the continents of: America, Asia and Oceania. This term was designated to the extreme temperatures and winds that begin in the center of the Pacific Ocean and their global effects on the climate and marine life; in addition to having a high intensity of precipitation, floods, destruction of agricultural crops and damage to populations and cities. (2) .
Its origin is in the Pacific Ocean belt because it is located in a geographical position where solar radiation directly hits, making the waters in that area warmer. The waters are driven by the Humboldt current, which is characterized by being cold with trade winds from SE to NW and waters from E to W. El Niño occurs every three to five years.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts El Niño as an extreme warming event between April and June (80% probability) and May and July (60%) of 2023.
“The first triple La Niña episode of the 21st century is coming to an end. The cooling effect of La Niña has temporarily slowed the rise in global temperatures, even though the past eight years have been the warmest on record.” (Petteri Talas. WMO).
El Niño What could happen on Earth?
Each event is not the same, as it depends on patterns, weather conditions and the time of year in which it occurs. During the summer, Indian monsoon rains tend to occur less in the northern hemisphere, while winter conditions are drier than normal in southeastern Africa and northern Brazil. As for humidity, it is usually observed along the Gulf Coast of the United States, the west coast of South America (Colombia, Ecuador and Peru) and southern Brazil to central Argentina. Mild winters occur in northwestern Canada and Alaska. (3).
South America It is one of the areas most sensitive to El Niño and La Niña events, affecting fishing by causing fish to migrate north and south in search of colder waters. There is less rain in the Amazon, which slows plant growth, as well as absorbing less CO₂ and causing poor harvests.
Australia It is another of the areas most affected by El Niño and La Niña, because with La Niña there have been three years of above-average rainfall, causing severe flooding, while with El Niño less rain is expected, but higher temperatures and a high probability of fires during winter and spring.
This happens when the waters in the Pacific Ocean warm, the excess heat and humidity is transferred to the atmosphere, adding greenhouse gases and water vapor deposited in the stratosphere by the explosion of the Tonga volcano (2022); this could start the El Niño of 2023 to be among the five warmest events of the modern era, surpassing 2016 as the warmest year ever recorded.
¨ It is noted that there is a high probability (93%) that by 2026, there will be at least one year with the highest temperatures recorded and a 50% probability that the global temperature will reach 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level. (UN, 2023).
The risks in Latin America due to the El Niño phenomenon in 2023
The FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) warned Latin American countries of the arrival of El Niño, as it is forecasting significant droughts and floods that can damage agricultural production as well as increase the probability of the spread of diseases. (4) .
¨ The most affected areas would be Central America and the Caribbean, where extreme dryness is expected. ¨ (FAO,2023).
However, there may also be a positive impact in areas suffering from droughts such as the Horn of Africa and Argentina due to increased rainfall, while in America, South Africa and Asia, it may cause problems.
El Niño, how does it affect agriculture and Mexico?
Climate change is considered the greatest threat to humanity, with heavy rains and floods, as well as droughts, occurring in North America. In the northern United States and Canada, temperatures are expected to be warmer and rainfall less frequent, while flooding is expected on the Gulf Coast due to a wetter-than-usual climate. While in Mexico, rainfall will increase in the northwest and northeast of the country, in the south it will decrease. (5).
The climate in Mexico will change in May (beginning of spring) in 2023, as cold fronts end and cyclones and hurricanes begin. Heavy, above-average rainfall is forecast, so the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of CONAGUA announces that the rainy season could extend for 9 months. The El Niño phenomenon would arrive with greater force in the northern and northeastern regions. However, colder winters and severe droughts are also forecast in the south, with a high probability of forest fires, as it is considered a country with more than 60% of arid or semi-arid territory. The effects of extreme droughts are reflected in grain production due to water stress in some areas of the country, in addition to the fact that the lack of rain is a sign of the presence of a strong El Niño event. In addition, there are more cold fronts, especially in the northern states and on the Gulf of Mexico side, also affecting the center of the country.
El Niño causes the following consequences in South America :
- Agricultural and fishery losses. The crops most at risk from this phenomenon are: lettuce, broccoli, cauliflower, cabbage, zucchini, squash and grasses.
- Increased spread of pests and diseases in agriculture and livestock
- Limitation of power generation
- Increase in mosquito-borne malaria, due to the increase in water temperature, accelerating the gestation of some insects.
- Increase in forest fires due to extreme droughts
- Floods
- Decrease the level of the flows
- Atmospheric pressure decreases
- Tropical storms
- Marine ecosystems are experiencing extreme temperature changes.
Conditions in USA and Canada :
- Warmer temperatures
- Less rainfall
Climate change has caused natural events such as El Niño and La Niña to occur with greater intensity, affecting not only human health and agriculture, but also that of other organisms. With the arrival of El Niño in 2023, all Latin American countries must prepare for the strong changes that this phenomenon will bring, from extreme droughts, as well as torrential rains in other areas and the probability of fires.
To read the full article with photos and videos, visit the following link: (25) "El Niño" phenomenon: risks and climatic consequences in 2023 | LinkedIn