“Maíz en riesgo: Desplome en cultivos por sequía, aumentará importaciones en 2024”

“Corn at risk: Crop collapse due to drought will increase imports in 2024”

In the heart of Mexico’s fields, the iconic corn plant faces a series of challenges that threaten food security and the economic stability of farmers. The combination of relentless drought, falling prices, climatic events and water scarcity has created a critical scenario that requires innovative and creative responses to preserve corn diversity and ensure agricultural sustainability.

Mexico ranks seventh on the list of producing nations worldwide, with the United States in first place with 387 million 749 thousand tons; in second place China with 280 million, Brazil with 129 million; the European Union with 64 million 300 thousand tons; Argentina with 54 million; India with 34 million 300 thousand tons and Mexico with 27 million 400 thousand tons.

Corn represents the species with the greatest variety at a national level, and a large part of the territory is located in the center of origin of this plant. This fact entails a historical responsibility in relation to current and future humanity. In addition, it constitutes the basis of the food of large rural centers where numerous ethnic groups of the country are found. The main state producing white corn is Sinaloa, having 15 of the 18 municipalities with the largest surface area of ​​hectares planted with corn; the most important are Sinaloa de Leyva, Culiacán, Badiraguato, San Ignacio and Cosalá, which together obtain 69% of the total in the state. In addition, there are 11 native corn races in the area, which is why it is considered the Center of High Genetic Diversity.

However, there are various factors that have hit the Mexican countryside. The main problems reported by producers and that affected their work and productivity were the high costs of inputs and services ( 88.8% ), losses due to some climatic or biological factor ( 61.0% ), the drop in prices ( 40.2% ), the loss of soil fertility ( 29.9% ) and insecurity ( 22.8% ).

The impact of climate change on crops is becoming increasingly important. The severe drought in the state of Sinaloa is forcing farmers to reduce their planting area by half, due to the shortage of water in the dams located in Sinaloa, which are part of a vital region that provides approximately 6 million tons of white corn during the fall-winter cycle. Due to this, a 50% drop in corn production is estimated, driving imports of up to 23 million tons of corn in 2024.

The Mexican Union of Agrochemical Manufacturers and Formulators (UMFFAAC) warns of a grain crisis due to drought and the scarcity of resources in the countryside. Corn production in Sinaloa could see a drastic drop of 60%, going from 5 million tons to just 2 million, including a reduction in corn planting to 250 thousand hectares, half of the traditional extension. In addition, the amount of wheat and bean production will be even lower.

Image 1. Map of the intensity of drought in Mexico 2023, with the North and Northeast being the most affected (CONAGUA. 2013).

The situation of the dams in Sinaloa is currently at 33.1% of their capacity, which poses the risk of closure of the gates by the National Water Commission (CONAGUA) in March 2024. This not only threatens the investment of farmers, but could also have an adverse impact on the country's food security.

The drought impacted the national territory by 78%, which was a determining factor in the projected reduction of corn production by one million tons during the spring-summer cycle of 2023. With Sinaloa and Sonora being the main producing states, they face a water storage capacity of 28%, which anticipates an aggravation of the problem in the fall-winter cycle.

Crop protection specialists consider that the outlook for the agricultural cycle is discouraging, since only 6% of the country's municipalities are free from the effects of drought (Campeche, Tabasco and Yucatan). Until September 30, significant increases were recorded in the areas affected by this phenomenon, especially in the Northeast, Central West and South Pacific, where the drought went from severe to extreme. The National Water Commission (CONAGUA) reported that the extreme drought category increased in states of the Northeast and North Pacific, and areas with drought emerged in Durango and the border zone between San Luis Potosí, Querétaro, Hidalgo and Veracruz. With a 7.88% increase in drought in the country with a total coverage of 74.96% of the national territory.

From January to September 2023, a total area of ​​502,550.14 hectares affected in the agricultural sector was reported, indicating that these areas were sown, but the crops did not germinate. This is the highest figure for a comparable period since 2018, being 679.4% higher than the previous year.

Image 2. Drought in corn crops.

In addition to the critical water shortage and the devastating impacts of the drought, another very important additional factor is the downward trend in corn prices. The decrease in prices negatively impacts the profitability of producers, making economic recovery even more difficult. In 2022, the price per ton was up to 7,300 pesos, but due to imports from the United States, the price per ton decreased by 1.5%. 40% , with a current price of 4,500 pesos per ton.

This decline in corn prices not only affects farmers, but also raises significant concerns for the agri-food industry as a whole. The reduction in farm income can have a domino effect throughout the supply chain, affecting investment, innovation and the ability to respond to market demands. Corn production in Mexico faces a multifaceted crisis characterized by extreme drought, water scarcity and declining corn prices. All of these factors put pressure on farmers and the agri-food supply chain. The environment of unfavorable weather conditions due to rain, the substitution of corn for less moisture-demanding forage crops and the decrease in areas planted with rainfed corn, combined with the advanced age of producers and the departure of young people from rural areas; does not show a favorable scenario for safeguarding corn diversity.

Given the critical situation in Mexico's countryside, what creative actions could we implement to support affected farmers and strengthen food security? What innovative ideas could we contribute to build a sustainable path towards agricultural recovery and development in Mexico?

Article on website: (24) “Corn at risk: Crop collapse due to drought, imports will increase in 2024” | LinkedIn

References

    Back to blog

    Leave a comment

    Please note, comments need to be approved before they are published.